SYDNEY, Mar 10 (IPS) – Talking on the current annual convention of the Bangladesh Administrative Service Affiliation, Chief Adviser Dr Muhammad Yunus has emphasised the necessity to create alternatives for younger folks, asserting that Bangladesh’s massive inhabitants just isn’t a burden however a invaluable useful resource.
A day later, Deputy Commissioners (DCs) proposed the introduction of common army coaching for teens, aiming to contain them within the nation’s defence efforts.
In fact, this can be a political choice, and it requires critical examinations of the proposed programme’s budgetary implications.
We now have performed some preliminary finances estimates. The excellent news is that we will introduce the programme progressively over 5-8 years, say starting with 10% of these turning 18 years as a pilot after which regularly cowl your entire cohort of 18-20 years previous who’re in a position to serve.
The context – seismic demographic shift
In 50 years since independence, Bangladesh’s inhabitants greater than doubled from round 70 million (7 crore) to round 174 million (17 crore), turning Bangladesh as one of the crucial densely populated nations on this planet. Regardless of a fast fall in fertility, Bangladesh’s inhabitants will proceed to develop largely because of the momentum impact. UN Inhabitants Division initiatives that Bangladesh’s whole inhabitants will attain its peak in 2071 with a inhabitants of 226 million.
Bangladesh is nicely into the third section of demographic transition, having shifted from a excessive mortality-high fertility regime to a low mortality-low fertility one. As proven within the inhabitants pyramid (Determine 1), there’s a youth bulge comprising about 28% of the inhabitants within the age bracket 15-29.
Determine 1: Bangladesh’s inhabitants by age (2024)
The UN initiatives that by 2030, the proportion of youth within the age bracket 15-29 years will decline to round 25% and by 2050 to round 20%. So, that is our demographic second that comes solely as soon as (see Determine 2).
As Professor Yunus harassed, younger inhabitants is a blessing – a supply of energy, vitality and vigour. A rustic with numerous younger folks not solely has a big pool of labor power, but additionally a big pool of potential future leaders – sometimes called “demographic dividend”.
Nonetheless, demographic dividend just isn’t prearranged. It is a chance offered by the age structural transition. This window of alternative opens for a inhabitants solely as soon as. If missed, it could change into a “demographic curse”.
A rustic can “change into previous earlier than turning into developed” – as we see within the case of Sri Lanka- characterised by a big proportion of aged inhabitants (non-working age) whereas the nation nonetheless struggles with poverty and infrastructure points. Thus, the nation not solely has fewer working-age folks (i.e., a smaller work power), but additionally has to help numerous folks of their older age. Such a demographic scenario probably hinders a rustic’s financial progress and creates challenges for its social welfare programs.
Thus, a rise within the proportion of younger folks in a rustic’s inhabitants construction can convey an enormous dividend offered this uncooked energy is transformed into extremely expert human assets, absorbed in productive employment and was entrepreneurs.
This may be proven by decomposing the neo-classical manufacturing operate as follows: Y/P = Y/SE x SE/E x E/LF x LF/WP x WP/P, the place Y = GDP, P = inhabitants, E = employment, SE = expert employment, LF = labour power, WP = working-age inhabitants.
Thus, GDP per capita (Y/P) is the product of:
- productiveness positive factors attributable to expert employment (Y/SE),
- proportion of expert employment (SE/E),
- employment price (E/LF),
- labour power participation price (LF/WP) and
- demography, i.e., proportion of working age inhabitants (WP/P).
Bangladesh’s demographic dividend could change into a mirage. The current scholar/youth unrest which started with a requirement for quota reform and finally toppled the Hasina regime is a transparent indication of the economic system’s lack of ability to soak up these youthful folks in productive employment or flip them into entrepreneurs. The official unemployment determine of about 3-4% based mostly on outdated labour power survey methodology doesn’t mirror the fact.
Nationwide service – a possible pressing resolution
Our most important problem is stopping demographic curse and reaping demographic dividend. Necessary nationwide service, comprising some primary defence coaching, IT and basic literacy-numeracy and vocational expertise, won’t solely convey monumental financial advantages, but additionally put together the nation for catastrophe administration, particularly attributable to local weather disaster. It’s going to additionally act as an efficient deterrent towards potential risk to our nationwide sovereignty.
At the moment, we now have round 1.6 crore (15.9 million) youths within the age bracket 20-24 – roughly 87 lakh females and 73 lakh males. Of the youth turning 18 years, about 29 lakh are in a position to serve, excluding child-bearing females (round 25%) and people with varied disabilities.
If 10% of the youth turning 18 years are included within the programme within the first yr, and Tk 12,000 monthly (equal to the present minimal wage) is used for every participant, then 5.8% of the entire 2024-25 finances proposed by the fallen regime would been required for defence. That is marginally increased than 5.3% allotted within the proposed 2024-25 finances. This determine rises to five.9% and 6.2% if coaching every participant requires Tk15,000 and Tk20,000, respectively.
The above tough and prepared estimates assume no change within the exiting allocation for different defence bills. Nor does the train think about effectivity positive factors.
Clearly, budgeting can’t be performed in isolation. The primary place to seek out cash is reallocation as required by reprioritisation. It must be talked about right here that the fallen regime in its final finances proposed for 2024-25 in June 2024, elevated defence finances by 11% over the revised defence finances for 2023–24. Due to this fact, this must be examined severely; the priorities of the ‘new Bangladesh’ can’t be the identical because the fallen regime’s.
Cash may come from the financial savings that may end in different sectors, e.g., schooling as there shall be lowered strain to broaden post- secondary schooling. If needed, the prices of such programmes must be shared by increased taxes for the sake of securing a affluent way forward for this nation.
Empowering the youth
Coaching and talent growth by necessary nationwide service is only one component within the provide aspect of the equation. The pool of obtainable expertise must be empowered and deployed to yield demographic dividend. In any other case, it will likely be wasted and will even flip right into a disruptive power.
Our most important problem is stopping demographic curse. Not solely we now have to reap demographic dividend, but additionally guarantee what’s referred to within the literature as ‘second demographic dividend’. Whereas the ‘first demographic dividend’ because of the rise within the proportion of working-age inhabitants is transitory, the ‘second demographic dividend’ might be perpetual.
For this to occur nations have to put money into talent upgrading, help entrepreneurial initiatives and progressive/versatile work surroundings to permit working even in older age and asset accumulation by employees.
Particularly, given the development in expertise, and notably Synthetic Intelligence (AI), we urgently have to rethink talent growth for our youth. Many college levels could quickly change into out of date as a result of the abilities they provide are liable to automation.
Mockingly, many blue-collar, hands-on jobs are more likely to survive as a result of they require psychological and motor expertise people have developed over millennia and are actually tough to automate. We think about them low-skill as a result of we take these expertise with no consideration. However, jobs which require high-level essential considering will even survive. We’d like pressing actions to stop our youth from falling into the “center”.
Act now
Professor Yunus has rightly understood the important thing message of youth revolt that the youth must be positioned on the coronary heart of methods as they’re dedicated to creating a brand new world which is inclusive, truthful and simply. Due to this fact, it’s logical that his authorities initiates the measures when the aspirations of the revolution are nonetheless recent within the minds.
Anis Chowdhury, Emeritus Professor, Western Sydney College (Australia); held senior UN positions at Bangkok & New York in financial & social affairs
Khalid Saifullah, Statistician with years of expertise working in worldwide organisations
This opinion editorial was first printed in New Age (24 Feb. 2025), Dhaka, Bangladesh
IPS UN Bureau
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