There was no sweeping regulation, no international funding blitz, no prime minister saying a inexperienced revolution. And but, by the top of 2024, Pakistan imported extra photo voltaic panels than virtually every other nation on the earth.
The South Asian nation, going through financial challenges and excessive power poverty, is witnessing one of the vital sudden clear power success tales of the last decade.
Pakistan has joined the ranks of the world’s main photo voltaic markets, importing 17 gigawatts of photo voltaic panels final yr alone, based on the International Electrical energy Evaluation 2025 by Ember, an power suppose tank within the UK.
This surge represents a doubling of the earlier yr’s imports, and makes Pakistan one of many high international consumers of photo voltaic panels.
The size of Pakistan’s imports is especially hanging as a result of it’s not pushed by a nationwide programme or utility-scale rollout.
As a substitute, the vast majority of the demand seems to return from rooftop photo voltaic installations by households, small companies and industrial customers trying to safe cheaper and extra dependable electrical energy within the face of frequent energy outages and rising power prices.
In line with Ember’s report, rooftop photo voltaic installations in houses and companies within the nation has soared as a “technique of accessing lower-cost energy”.
Pakistan’s specialists echo this evaluation.
Muhammad Mustafa Amjad, programme director at Renewables First, tells The Impartial that the photo voltaic increase is greatest understood as a “survival response” by folks and companies that had been “more and more being priced out of the grid as a consequence of inefficient planning and unreliable provide”.
“It marks a structural shift,” he provides, “in how power is perceived in Pakistan.”
Pakistan’s photo voltaic panel imports in fiscal yr 2024 alone, Mr Amjad says, quantity to roughly half of the nationwide peak energy demand.
“Rooftop photo voltaic is quick changing into the popular power supplier,” he provides. “And the position of the grid has to massively adapt to be able to stay related in a fast-transitioning power economic system.”
Ubaid Ullah, an power knowledgeable in Karachi, argues that the power transition is pushed by folks taking issues into their very own fingers.
“If you happen to have a look at satellite tv for pc photos of any Pakistani metropolis,” he tells The Impartial, “all of the roofs seem blue, lined in photo voltaic panels.”
In a area usually tormented by grid instability, photo voltaic panels have emerged as a sensible various to unreliable public provide. The sharp enhance in imports in 2024 follows years of worsening energy cuts, fluctuating tariffs, and excessive prices related to diesel mills and imported fuels. Reasonably than ready for nationwide reforms, many Pakistanis started adopting photo voltaic applied sciences instantly – usually putting in panels and inverters with out a lot reliance on subsidies or centralised planning.
This makes Pakistan’s photo voltaic development considerably uncommon within the international panorama.
In lots of international locations, photo voltaic adoption has been carefully tied to local weather coverage or worldwide financing. Pakistan’s photo voltaic increase, in distinction, seems to be a response to market logic and native necessity, not local weather diplomacy.
The Ember report notes that Pakistan’s development is occurring largely “outdoors formal power planning frameworks”.
Trade specialists say there’s minimal direct authorities intervention in Pakistan’s photo voltaic journey. In reality, the infrastructure is struggling to maintain up.
Whereas regulators have authorised internet metering insurance policies and eased import restrictions lately, there have been no main public spending programmes or large-scale photo voltaic auctions to match the tempo of adoption seen on the family or industrial stage.
Regardless of importing report volumes of photo voltaic panels, Pakistan’s official grid-connected photo voltaic capability stays far decrease, indicating that a lot of the brand new photo voltaic is working off-grid or behind the meter, the place it escapes inclusion in nationwide electrical energy statistics.
This divergence between on-the-ground installations and official planning is already elevating issues. Grid operators and utility corporations are struggling to adapt to the consequences of widespread self-generation, significantly in city areas the place high-value clients are more and more producing their very own electrical energy through the day and counting on the grid solely because the backup.
The dynamic, typically known as a “utility loss of life spiral”, can erode the monetary base of public power suppliers whereas inserting new stress on infrastructure throughout peak night hours.
In its evaluation, Ember warns that this type of fast, decentralised development requires up to date planning and regulatory instruments to keep away from instability.
“Up to date system planning and regulatory frameworks are wanted alongside this deployment to make sure a sustainable and managed transition,” the report says.
Whereas the main focus has been on photo voltaic, Pakistan’s broader renewable power combine contains rising contributions from wind, hydropower, and bioenergy.
Nevertheless, photo voltaic is by far the fastest-moving section, significantly as a result of it may be deployed at small scale with minimal bureaucratic friction.
In a rustic with long-standing challenges round governance and infrastructure supply, the modular nature of photo voltaic know-how has enabled adoption even within the absence of enormous public funding.
The 2024 import figures replicate greater than a spike in shopper curiosity. Additionally they converse to the declining prices of photo voltaic know-how globally, significantly for modules manufactured in China, which dominates worldwide provide chains.
Falling tools costs, mixed with risky native gas prices and chronic energy shortages, have made photo voltaic one of the vital economically viable power options in Pakistan right now.
Regardless of this, important gaps stay in how the transition is being managed. With little oversight of system high quality, storage deployment or grid balancing mechanisms, Pakistan dangers undermining the long-term advantages of its clear power enlargement.
Within the absence of stronger information, extra clear planning and funding in modernising the grid, the present surge could exacerbate current inequalities in entry and reliability.
Nonetheless, the broader message from Pakistan’s expertise is evident: clear power adoption is not restricted to rich nations or high-emitting economies.
When the economics work, and the boundaries are low, power transitions can take root rapidly – even in locations the place coverage has traditionally lagged ambition.
What’s taking place in Pakistan could also be messy and uneven, nevertheless it holds international significance. It gives a blueprint – or at the least a suggestion – of how power transitions may look in a lot of the International South. Not as a rigorously orchestrated top-down course of, however as a decentralised, demand-led shift pushed by necessity and economics.
In line with Mr Amjad, this makes Pakistan an early instance of a brand new power mannequin.
“For International South economies,” he says, “this presents an alternate bottom-up, people-led, and market-driven mannequin of power transition – one that gives safe, distributed, and democratised entry to scrub and reasonably priced power.”
Battery storage, he provides, is prone to comply with the identical trajectory as photo voltaic – low-cost, modular and adopted rapidly on the fringe of the grid, not the centre. “With the worth of batteries following the same trajectory to photo voltaic, the tempo of power transition throughout International South international locations will certainly speed up, because the volatility round imported fuels continues to encourage renewable development.”
Harjeet Singh, strategic adviser to the Fossil Gasoline Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative, says Pakistan’s story exhibits photo voltaic is not only a inexperienced choice, however an reasonably priced one.
“The exceptional development of photo voltaic power in international locations like Pakistan underscores that photo voltaic is not simply an environmental selection – it’s a robust financial answer, particularly for the growing world. Confronted with risky fossil gas costs, hovering electrical energy payments, and sometimes unreliable grids, households and companies are embracing photo voltaic as a result of it gives a less expensive, cleaner, and extra reliable supply of energy,” Mr Singh says.
“This isn’t merely about decarbonisation anymore; it’s essentially about making certain power entry, driving financial stability, and strengthening power safety from the bottom up.”
