Cut up Ticket: “Democrats swelled with confidence after their victory within the State Supreme Court docket race in Trump-won Wisconsin. It appeared that public opinion swung sharply towards Donald Trump and the GOP regardless of Elon Musk’s eight-figure funding within the state. However the full story just isn’t so easy.”
“Our pre-election modeling and preview pointed to an apparent turnout benefit that Democrats loved, flagging it as an indication they may win large on April 1st. It’s because the higher-propensity voters who vote in off-cycle elections are inclined to lean left of the low-propensity voters who solely present up in presidential years. The election outcomes validate that concept, displaying how an overwhelmingly blue citizens left Wisconsin Republicans within the mud.”
“Our estimate is that the voters who voted within the 2025 Supreme Court docket election backed Kamala Harris by 7 factors in 2024. In different phrases, roughly 70% of Susan Crawford’s win margin was attributable to modifications in who was voting, relatively than modifications in how individuals voted.”
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